🔗 Share this article

As dawn was breaking the Amazonian city of Belém on Saturday morning, delegates remained stuck in a airless conference room, uncertain whether it was day or night. For more than 12 hours in difficult discussions, with scores ministers representing 17 groups of countries from the poorest nations to the most developed economies.

Patience wore thin, the air thick as exhausted delegates faced up to the sobering reality: they were unlikely to achieve a comprehensive agreement in Brazil. The latest global climate summit faced the brink of abject failure.

The central impasse: Fossil fuels

Research has demonstrated for well over a century, the greenhouse gases produced by consuming fossil fuels is warming our planet to dangerous levels.

Nevertheless, during more than three decades of yearly climate meetings, the crucial requirement to halt fossil fuel use has been referenced only once – in a decision made two years ago at previous UN climate talks to "transition away from fossil fuels". Officials from the Middle Eastern nations, Russia, and multiple other countries were adamant this would not be repeated.

Mounting support for change

Meanwhile, a increasing coalition of countries were equally determined that movement on this issue was crucially important. They had developed a proposal that was gathering increasing support and made it evident they were prepared to dig in.

Emerging economies desperately wanted to move forward on securing funding support to help them manage the already disastrous impacts of climate disasters.

Critical moment

During the night of Saturday, some delegates were ready to walk out and force a collapse. "It was on the edge for us," commented one energy minister. "I was ready to walk away."

The critical development occurred through talks with Saudi Arabia. Near 6am, key negotiators separated from the main group to hold a confidential discussion with the head Saudi negotiator. They encouraged language that would indirectly acknowledge the global commitment to "move beyond fossil fuels" made two years earlier in Dubai.

Unanticipated resolution

As opposed to explicitly namechecking fossil fuels, the text would refer to "the Dubai agreement". Following reflection, the Saudi delegation surprisingly accepted the wording.

The room collapsed into relief. Celebrations began. The agreement was finalized.

With what became known as the "Belém political package", the world took an incremental move towards the phaseout of fossil fuels – a uncertain, insufficient step that will scarcely affect the climate's steady march towards catastrophe. But nevertheless a significant departure from absolute paralysis.

Major components of the agreement

• In addition to the indirect reference in the official document, countries will begin work a plan to systematically reduce fossil fuels
• This will be largely a non-binding program led by Brazil that will deliver findings next year
• Addressing the essential decreases in greenhouse gas emissions to remain below the 1.5C limit was similarly postponed to next year
• Developing countries secured a significant expansion to $120bn of regular financial support to help them cope with the impacts of climate disasters
• This sum will not be completely provided until 2035
• Workers will benefit from a "fair adjustment program" to help people working in high-carbon industries shift to the sustainable sector

Varied responses

While our planet teeters on the brink of climate "tipping points" that could eliminate habitats and throw whole regions into crisis, the agreement was insufficient as the "significant advancement" needed.

"Cop30 gave us some small advances in the proper course, but in light of the scale of the climate crisis, it has fallen short of the occasion," cautioned one environmental analyst.

This limited deal might have been the best attainable, given the geopolitical headwinds – including a American leader who shunned the talks and remains aligned with oil and coal, the increasing presence of rightwing populism, continuing wars in multiple regions, unacceptable degrees of inequality, and global economic volatility.

"Fossil fuel corporations – the energy conglomerates – were ultimately in the spotlight at these negotiations," notes one policy convener. "We have crossed a threshold on that. The political space is accessible. Now we must transform it into a genuine solution to a safer world."

Major disagreements revealed

While nations were able to welcome the formal approval of the deal, Cop30 also revealed deep fissures in the sole international mechanism for addressing the climate crisis.

"International summits are consensus-based, and in a time of global disagreements, unanimity is increasingly difficult to reach," commented one senior UN official. "I cannot pretend that this summit has provided all that is needed. The disparity between where we are and what science demands remains alarmingly large."

When the world is to avert the worst ravages of climate breakdown, the global discussions alone will fall far short.